By Abdulahmeed Abdulrozaq Bilal | Fact Frontier.
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As 2025 draws to a close, Nigeria's political opposition is in profound disarray, with a wave of defections, paralysing internal crises, and intense infighting defining the year. Against this backdrop, a stark accusation has emerged from within the ranks of the troubled Peoples Democratic Party (PDP): that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu are orchestrating the opposition's collapse to pave the way for a one-party state ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Niyi Aborisade, a UK-based human rights lawyer and PDP chieftain, has become a leading voice for this charge. He describes a calculated campaign of coercion and interference designed to suffocate credible opposition.
The insect dancing on the surface of the water is responding to the drummer beneath,Aborisade stated, employing a Yoruba proverb.
The drummer is not difficult to identify. It is the All Progressives Congress (APC)-led Federal Government, particularly the Presidency.This sentiment is echoed in his direct critique of President Tinubu, whom he accuses of "playing dangerous politics" and deliberately weakening opposition to secure an unchallenged path in 2027.
The Visible Symptoms: A Weakened Opposition Landscape
The evidence of a crippled opposition is stark and multi-faceted, documented across numerous reports from late 2025.
The PDP's Precipitous Decline
Once Nigeria's dominant party, the PDP has been reduced to a shadow of its former self. The party is grappling with two rival National Working Committees—one led by Kabiru Tanimu Turaki and another aligned with FCT Minister Nyesom Wike—leaving its leadership in limbo. Most damaging has been an unprecedented exodus of governors to the APC. Throughout 2025, the PDP lost at least seven governors, including those of Rivers, Delta, Akwa Ibom, and Plateau states. As of December, only the governors of Oyo and Bauchi states remained as the party's last standing governors.
Crisis Across the Board
The fragmentation extends beyond the PDP. The Labour Party (LP), which surged in popularity during the 2023 elections, has been crippled by factional warfare and court battles. Similarly, the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) has struggled with internal disagreements and defections. In response to this widespread weakness, a broad coalition of opposition figures, including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and 2023 LP presidential candidate Peter Obi, formally adopted the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as a unified platform in July 2025. However, analysts and even its supporters describe this alliance as "fragile," with overlapping personal ambitions threatening its cohesion.
Key Points of the Political Standoff
The Allegations by the Opposition:
• Orchestrated Defections:
Claims that defections to the APC follow a "clear and deliberate pattern" orchestrated from the center, with state power used as a weapon to coerce politicians.
• Institutional Bias:
Accusations that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has shown bias, refusing to recognise the PDP's legitimate leadership and failing to act as a neutral umpire.
• Use of State Apparatus:
Allegations that anti-graft agencies like the EFCC are used to harass and intimidate opposition figures into defecting.
• Exploitation of Internal Crisis:
The belief that the APC is the "drummer" sustaining and exploiting the PDP's internal conflicts to prevent opposition unity.
The Rebuttal from the Ruling Party:
• Denial of Coercion:
The Presidency has outright refuted claims of arm-twisting, stating defectors are motivated by the "noticeable gains" of President Tinubu's reform programme.
• Opposition as "Saboteurs":
The APC frames resistance to its policies as "calculated sabotage" by actors who would rather see "Nigeria bleed" than not be in power.
• Internal Failure:
The ruling party and some analysts contend that the opposition's crisis is self-inflicted, stemming from failed leadership, personal ambitions, and "internal contradictions".
The Rivers State Flashpoint and the 2027 Stakes
The political drama in Rivers State has become the prime exhibit for Aborisade's allegations. The rift between Governor Siminalayi Fubara and his predecessor, FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, culminated in President Tinubu declaring a state of emergency in the state on March 18, 2025, and suspending the governor. Although Governor Fubara was reinstated months later, he subsequently defected to the APC in December 2025 after a closed-door meeting with President Tinubu. This move triggered a domino effect, with several federal lawmakers from the state swiftly crossing over to the APC.
Aborisade and other critics label the emergency rule a case of "undue interference and intimidation" and a "subtle threat to other governors". They argue it exemplifies how legal and political instruments can be deployed to destabilize opposition strongholds.
Despite the bleak landscape for his party, Aborisade insists that the ultimate determinant in 2027 will not be political maneuvering but the severe economic hardship faced by Nigerians. He points to "unprecedented" food inflation, hunger, insecurity, and a collapsing national currency as issues that will drive voter behavior. "Hunger is stronger than money," he argues, suggesting that widespread suffering could override the political advantages gained through defections and coercion.
As Nigeria enters 2026 in few days, the political terrain appears heavily tilted in favour of the ruling APC. The opposition's survival hinges on its ability to overcome internal fractures and present a united front, a task that has so far proved insurmountable. The coming year will test whether the emerging ADC coalition can consolidate into a credible alternative or if the allegations of a deliberate march toward a one-party system will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
